“The departure of Raúl Castro from the presidency will mean very little for Cuba. General Castro will remain secretary general of the Communist Party and leader of the military. Political power in Cuba rests in the hands of the politburo, while economic power rests in the hands of Gaesa and its president, Luis Alberto López-Callejas, Raúl Castro’s son-in-law. The designated president, Miguel Díaz-Canel, lacks support within the party or within the military. He will follow the dictates of Raúl and the politburo.
The possible collapse of the Venezuelan economy and the end of the Maduro regime will affect Cuba, but much less than the collapse of communism. Cuba now has tourism, a dollarized economy and remittances from Cuban-Americans, that it did not have before 1990. For Cuba, relations with the United States are only important because of tourism and the possibility of ending the embargo. Otherwise, General Castro will continue to rely on support from his traditional allies: Russia, China and Iran. The Cubans will continue to muddle through, hoping for better times. Younger Cubans are increasingly restless and hopeful for real change. Unfortunately, they may have to wait a while longer.”
Note: A version of this article was published in the “Latin American Advisor,” Interamerican Dialogue, December 11, 2017.
