A NEW MISSILE CRISIS IN THE MAKING?

Note: The following article highlights Russian actions in Cuba that may have major implications for U.S.-Russian relations and for Cuba.  If Putin is willing now to challenge U.S. security interests in the U.S. own backyard, it may represent a threat perhaps as dangerous as Khrushchev surreptitious introduction of nuclear missiles in Cuba in 1962.  Russian submarines now carrying nuclear missiles, and Russian missiles in the ocean floor in waters on the coast of  Cuba represent a major threat to the U.S. and a Russian strategic gamble that requires a U.S. response.   

                         Jaime Suchlicki
Director
Cuban Studies Institute

A NEW MISSILE CRISIS IN THE MAKING?

                                                                                                                                 By Paulina Zelitsky*

The main Spy Ship Vischego Klassa of the Russian Navy returned to Havana on March 3, 2020, once again, in secret and in an unsafe manner, that is not turning on transmitter to send signals over AIS (Automatic Identification System) or turning on lights, or answering inquiries from other ships to avoid collision in high-traffic areas.[1]

The current arrival of AGI Victor Leonov in Havana surprisingly did not produce any notice or reaction from the Western or even Russian press this time. They chose not to notice this fact (except Cubanet), despite the initial tweet with the picture of this ship on March 4, 2020, by Patrick Oppmann correspondent of CNN in Cuba. I have the expert confirmation that Patrick is right, but CNN decided not to mention this news item. Such turning of blind eyes on the current visit to Cuba of AGI Victor Leonov is surprising, for it is highly unlikely that the Russian navy drops secretly every few weeks to Cuba because they love Cuban beaches. Previously it always provoked a lot of media noise.

During her previous Cuban visit in December 16,17, and 18 of 2019, AGI Victor Leonov provoked numerous protests from passing vessels and the US Coast Guard with some experts suggesting that it is gathering US military information from US naval bases, digital signatures of US subs, radars and sensors, information from undersea cables networks and even the surveillance of US coastline for “alleged Kanyon targeting”.[2]

At the same time, her visits this past December and now in March are likely required for working with their new Russian Intelligence Gathering Base/GLONASS, currently operating just 90 miles off the US coast. This new modernized Intelligence Gathering SIGINT/GLONASS has replaced the previous outdated Soviet Spy SIGINT center in Lourdes. Putin, Medvedev, and Borisov officially personally announced the commencement of its operations in Cuba last October; not a single Western media noticed their announcements either.[3]

On February 22, 2020, the head of Russian Navy Admiral Nikolay Evmenov, returned to Moscow from 6 days working visit of Cuban ports and Cuban Navy enterprises on the invitation of Raul Castro and Miguel Diaz-Canel in response to their own working visits to Moscow earlier in 2019. Only the Russian and the Cuban media reported the visit of Russian Navy Admiral Nikolay Evmenov to Cuba in Russian and Spanish languages.[4]

The Russian official press and “so-called independent” Russian TV media reported that the reason for such a long working visit (6 days) of the Head of Russian Navy was that Cuba agreed, once again, to rebuild a Russian submarine nuclear base in Cuba, a facility being built in Jagua Bay, Cienfuegos.

The Russian media describes the deal for the return of the Russian navy base in Cuba is made at the behest of the Cuban state. To that end, Russia promised to invest over 1 billion Euros into rebuilding and modernizing Cuban harbor facilities (in Jagua Bay?) to service Russian navy submarines and the Cuban navy military industry. Also, the Russian media asserted that the Cuban civil residents of the Bay of Jagua and coastal areas of Cienfuegos will be relocated from the coastal areas. One billion Euros would be their largest ever investment into militarizing Cuba.

Being aware of the current dismal socio-economic situation of ordinary Russians, because the Russian state cannot pay even for the medical services of Russian veterans and pensioners, I decided to check this claim and found the confirmation in Cuban media of 2019 made upon return of Raul Castro and Miguel Diaz-Canel from Moscow. The Cuban government announced to the residents in the area of Bay of Jagua and Cienfuegos their imminent relocation to the interior of Cuba for climatic reasons.[5]

In conclusion, the Russian Navy announced their return to providing a base in Cuba for Russian submarines with nuclear-tipped cruise missiles, as well as for the Russian navy surface fleet, equipped as well with nuclear-tipped cruise missiles. According to Putin, who only recently publicly acknowledged the operation of the Soviet navy base for submarines with nuclear-tipped missiles in Cienfuegos from 1969 to 1992, the current Russian base should be similar to Tartus – a Russian navy base in Syria.

These new developments are in addition to the even more dangerous Russian technology: SKIF – Russian nuclear-tipped cruise missiles located on the ocean floor in the offshore of Cuban territorial waters. These missiles are controlled remotely from the already mentioned above brand-new Russian SIGINT/GLONASS center, which Russian V-President Dmitry Medvedev personally officially opened and announced as functional in Cuba on October 4, 2019.

Most curious is that not a single source in English or any western media mentioned this scandalous event. I suspect that Russia is back dancing their Third Waltz of the Cuban crisis, just what Putin announced they will do. The first was The Caribbean crisis in 1962, the second started in 1969, which I described in my memoir, and the third Russian Waltz has started now. The operation of this navy base in Jagua Bay in Cienfuegos I described in my memoir “The Sea is Only Knee Deep” available on Amazon.[6]

The West, once again, does not want to know about it. Russia surrounds and threatens the US with nuclear cruise missiles and satellite/subsea cable surveillance, and the US and Canada do not want to know or to notice it. I wonder if they simply do not know what to do about it and have no means to deal with it. Russian cruise missiles are not experimental technology as the alleged, very expensive Kanyon is. Russian cruise missiles shot from air, land, surface ships, submarines and the seafloor have been in operation for the last 20 years.[7]

All these military maneuvers by Russia, 90 miles off the American east coast, are a not-so-subtle message to the U.S.: “We are very dangerous. Stay out of our hair, stay out of Ukraine”. The same message was delivered during the previous two Cuban crises. 1st in 1962, 2nd in 1969 and now 3rd in 2020.[8]

[1] https://www.cubanet.org/noticias/cuba-barco-espia-ruso-reaparece-en-puerto-de-la-habana/

[2] https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/opinion/what-russias-unsafe-spy-ship-might-be-up-to

[3] https://twnews.com.ua/ru-news/borisov-soobshchil-o-zapuske-pervoi-na-kube-stantsii-glonass

[4] https://oncubanews.com/articulos-revista/comandante-en-jefe-de-la-armada-rusa-visita-cuba/

[5] https://www.cubanet.org/noticias/unas-11-420-familias-seran-reubicadas-en-cienfuegos/

[6]https://www.amazon.com/gp/product/B074CJ6HVR?ref_=dbs_r_series&storeType=ebooks

[7] https://www.businessinsider.com/us-military-lacks-cruise-missiles-defense-2016-8

https://www.defenseone.com/threats/2015/06/pentagon-building-cruise-missile-shield-defend-us-cities-russia/115723/

https://breakingdefense.com/2019/08/newest-army-laser-could-kill-cruise-missiles/

[8] https://www.reuters.com/article/us-russia-usa-missiles/russia-warns-of-repeat-of-1962-cuban-missile-crisis-idUSKCN1TP14Y

REFERENCES:

Russian Press about the visit of Admiral Evmenov and Putin’s declarations:

https://www.militarynews.ru/story.asp?rid=0&nid=527651&lang=RU  (INTERFAX military news)

https://svpressa.ru/war21/article/257450/   (Free Press)

http://www.ng.ru/politics/2020-02-16/2_7795_cuba.html  (Nezavisimaya Gazeta)

https://www.korabel.ru/news/comments/glavkom_vmf_rossii_na_kube_posetil_voennye_korabli.html (TASS)

https://www.golos-ameriki.ru/a/putin-insists-russia-ready-to-cuban-missile-style-crisis/4799486.html

https://nsn.fm/policy/karibskii-krizis-2-kak-otvet-amerike

https://ria.ru/20190220/1551153828.html

Russian TV:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1iEvPiF6XOk   (24News plus)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7dC3udy5fkw  (News Today)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5GtIONsrvUc   (Honest News)

*Paulina Zelitsky is a Soviet-born Canadian Professional Engineer with international experience in security, transportation and energy sectors. During 1968-71, she was a member of a design and construction team of a secret Soviet submarine base installation in Jagua Bay, Cienfuegos, Cuba, which operated for over 20 years. She defected to Canada in 1971. The dramatic story is detailed in her memoir “The Sea is Only Knee Deep”.