By Jaime Suchlicki *
If the Democrats retain control of the Senate in the midterm elections, the administration may offer new concessions to the Cuban government. But the United States should expect very little in return from the regime in Havana. Cuba remains an enemy of the United States and an ally of Iran, Russia, and North Korea. Cuba is un[1]willing to renounce this alliance in exchange for an uncertain relationship with the United States that may change again after 2024. Cuba’s policies are likely to continue closer in line with regimes that are not friendly to the United States and demand little from Cuba in return for generous aid.
Raúl and his regime in Havana remain followers and cheerleaders of Fidel’s anti-American policies. Any major move to reject “Fidel’s teachings” will create uncertainty among Cuba’s ruling elites—party and military. It could increase instability as some would advocate rapid change while others cling to orthodox policies. Cubans could see this as an opportunity for further mobilization, demanding faster reforms. The critical challenge for the Cuban regime will be to balance the need to improve the economy and satisfy the need of the population while maintaining political control. Too-rapid economic reforms may lead to an unraveling of political control, a fact feared by the military and other allies keen on remaining in power. A partial solution may be to provide more consumer goods but without any structural economic changes.
The current president, Miguel Díaz-Canel scoffed at the idea of profound changes: “I was not chosen to be president to restore capitalism” he emphasized, “I was elected to defend, maintain and continue to perfect socialism and not to destroy it.”
(Originally published at The Dialogue, Latin America Advisor, Washinton, D.C., Thursday, November 10, 2022)
*Jaime Suchlicki is Director of the Cuban Studies Institute, CSI, a non-profit research group in Coral Gables, FL. He is the author of Cuba: From Columbus to Castro & Beyond, now in its 5th edition; Mexico: From Montezuma to the Rise of the PAN, 2nd edition, and Breve Historia de Cuba.
