IS PUTIN PLANNING A NUCLEAR CRISIS IN THE CARIBBEAN?

By Paulina Zelitsky, P. Eng. *

Despite an aggressive blackmail campaign by the Kremlin with threats to repeat the Caribbean crisis and start a nuclear war with the West, unless the West agrees immediately to the Kremlin’s demands on Ukraine and NATO, there were no credible reports of Russian submarine visiting either Cuba or Venezuela. Russian threats and claims must always be carefully examined by independent Navy experts because disinformation traditionally was the most effective and cheapest weapon of Soviet and contemporary Russian propaganda. The real military threats are strictly secret and not announced to the public.

Putin declared that Ukraine, assisted by the West, presents the same geostrategic danger to Russia as Cuba presented to the USA. Therefore, the Kremlin orchestrated a very loud official and public media campaign to force the current American administration and NATO to capitulate to the Kremlin’s demands; otherwise, Putin will repeat the Caribbean crisis using recently developed Russian-guided hypersonic nuclear cruise missiles ZIRKON and large nuclear torpedo Poseidon against which the USA has no defensive weapons. 

The truth is that the real Russian threats from Cuba are not those Putin tells us. Reposting translations of Russian propaganda is not credible or useful and, if possible, shall be avoided in order not to disseminate disinformation. Actually, no Russian submarines visited Cuba or Venezuela in recent years – not so for Russian surface Navy vessels. The last such visit took place on June 24, 2019, when the frigate Admiral Gorshkov equipped with subsonic guided cruise missiles Kalibr and Onics pulled into Havana on a mission of projecting strength. 

The frigate Admiral Gorshkov was accompanied by an entourage of Russian tanker Kama, tug Nikolai Chiker and logistics support vessels but, at the time, Admiral Gorshkov was equipped only with Kalibr and not with hypersonic missiles ZIRCON or Poseidon drones. Only on her return to the Russian Arctic by the autumn of 2020, the frigate Admiral Gorshkov was equipped with launchers to test 3M22 Tsirkon or Zircon (NATO’s designation SS-N-33) the anti-ship hypersonic maneuvering cruise missiles; the first test of Zircon was reported on October 7, 2020. The launch was carried out from the White Sea at the target at the Chizha training ground in the Arkhangelsk region. It was claimed that the rocket developed a speed of 8 Mach and hit a coastal target at a distance of 350 kilometers. The Russian Ministry of Defence published a YouTube video of this test – just great, except the video of the missile was not of Zircon but Oniks (SS-N-26 STROBILE) anti-ship missile. http://www.hisutton.com/Russian-Navy-Zircon-Hypersonic-Missile-Questions.html

The Russian Navy promises to continue testing in the Russian Arctic these missiles into 2024 from the new nuclear submarine, Severodvinsk (pr 885 Yasen) or Kazan (K-561), apparently which are under re-construction for they were originally built to use Onicks (3M55), and Kalibr (SS-N-30A SIZZLER) cruise missile weapons ranged up to 2,500 km. It means the ZIRKON weapons don’t represent the current threat from Cuba or anywhere else. They are not yet ready to be employed on a real battlefield. Launching hypersonic missiles from the surface platform versus from under the water submarines is a completely different business. Where is the new Russian submarine APL Perm and APL Kazan, which were announced by the Russian Navy to become the first serial submarines to operate with Zircon? Actually, these submarines are still in the Severodvinsk Navy shipyard under construction. It is expected that these submarines are planned for delivery to the Russian Navy only in 2023. So, how credible are the claims of Putin and his clique about the readiness of Zircon? We don’t know, but there are already serious doubts and questions in that regard.

Another modern superior weapon that Putin is promising to employ in a Caribbean crisis is a deep-water long-distance drone or torpedo UUV Poseidon which will only enter service in 2027. http://www.hisutton.com/Poseidon_Torpedo.html   There are currently some western technical solutions available that could be employed as a defense shield against them.

http://www.hisutton.com/Countering_Russian_Poseidon_Torpedo.html Many of the claims regarding Poseidon have been already demystified, http://www.hisutton.com/Poseidon_demystified.html  It boils down to the conclusion that these ‘superior’ weapons about which Putin brags so loudly, can’t be used in a Caribbean theatre of war anywhere in the near term, if ever. It would be a very expensive, as well as a detection-risky venture to use long-distance intercontinental weapons from the Caribbean region where the distance between Cuba and the USA is only 90 miles. 

Still, the USA must be vigilant. In past years, Russian lawmakers have been advocating the placement of Russia’s advanced weapons systems in Cuba, Central America and elsewhere “in America’s underbelly.” Those options likely remain on Moscow’s menu. On December 21, 2021, state TV host Olga Skabeeva pointed out: “We’re contemplating placing our nuclear weapons in Cuba or Venezuela.”

On November 22, 2017, the Russian Senator and the Head of the Russian Air and Space Forces Viktor Bondarev announced the SKIF (Scyth) ocean floor-based systems entering in Navy service. The low flying over the water surface SKIF cruise missiles with several nuclear warheads aimed at the land or navy ship targets could represent a real danger to the USA unless it has already developed and installed a cruise missile shield defense against low flying cruise-missile weapons.

The SKIF launchers are installed in strict secrecy in undersea silos on the ocean floor in a standby position. Their launch is activated and guided remotely on command from Moscow to hit ground and water targets of the enemy. These secretly installed cruise missiles on the ocean floor in Cuban territorial waters are controlled remotely from the brand-new Russian SIGINT/GLONASS center in Cuba, which Russian V-President Dmitry Medvedev personally officially opened and announced functional on October 4, 2019. 

The transit from the Russian Northern Navy base to the Caribbean region takes approximately 40 days. It is an expensive and risky mission, which Russia can spare by counting on remote-controlled and guided nuclear-tipped SKIF cruise missiles launched from permanent SKIF stations in Cuban territorial waters.

Concerning Russian submarines visiting Venezuela, for the time being, the fact is that Russia has an interest in Venezuela’s oil and gold, as well as tapping the international communication cable networks offshore of Venezuela. Otherwise, Russia has not shown the same geostrategic interests as those in Cuba for the obvious reason of much longer distance to the USA. 

The last time the Russian Navy ship destroyer DDC Vice-Admiral Kulakov visited Venezuela was in August of 2021 in La Guaira, Venezuela.  DDC Vice-Admiral Kulakov is indeed equipped with the latest cruise missile artillery and air defense rockets Kinzhal, but the destroyer DDC Vice-Admiral Kulakov has already returned to its base in the Arctic Kola peninsula after cruising the globe for 5 months and visiting many ports around the world including Venezuela. 

Contrary to a real Caribbean crisis, this time the Kremlin’s media propaganda created a torrent of misinformation about new hypersonic weaponry with which they aim to scare the West.  Not so quick; both Zircon and Poseidon are not yet ready for service on the battlefield. Perhaps, the Pentagon has already provided a cruise missile shield defense against Kalibr cruise missiles launched from the ocean floor of Cuban territorial waters, about which I have been writing since 2013. The recent demonstration in Syria of the effectiveness of Russian Kalibr missiles launched from the Caspian Sea proves the point. Don’t look up! 

*Paulina Zelitsky is a Soviet-born Canadian Professional Engineer with international experience in security, transportation, and energy sectors. During 1968-71, she was a member of a design and construction team of a secret Soviet submarine base installation in Jagua Bay, Cienfuegos, Cuba, which operated for over 20 years. She defected to Canada in 1971. The dramatic story is detailed in her memoir “The Sea is Only Knee Deep”.