* By Jaime Suchlicki
The next five years in Cuba under the leadership of recently reelected “President” Miguel Díaz-Canel will likely follow the disastrous five years of his first administration. The economy will continue to deteriorate, repression and migration will increase and unhappiness among Cubans will deepen with growing demonstrations and opposition to the more than 61 years of communist rule.
Meantime, relations with Russia, Iran and China will continue to deepen with Russia’s navy challenging the United States, using Cuban and Venezuelan ports. Relations with newly elected leftist leaders in Latin America – Lula in Brazil and Petro in Colombia – will begin to develop into an anti-American cartel, joined by Venezuela’s Maduro and Nicaragua’s Ortega.
The achievements of Díaz-Canel during his first five years were limited to continuing the repressive policies of Fidel and Raúl Castro and to preside over the growing deterioration of the economy and the massive migration of Cubans. The critical challenge for Díaz-Canel now would be to balance the need to improve the economy and satisfy the needs of the population with maintaining continuous political control. Since Cuba does not have a viable economy of its own, nearly every category of imports keeps decreasing and a vicious cycle of poverty descends without mercy.
The future of Cuba is therefore clouded with problems and uncertainties. More than six decades of communism will surely leave profound scars on Cuban society. As in Eastern Europe and Nicaragua, reconstruction may be slow, painful, and not totally successful. Unlike these countries, however, Cuba has at least three unique advantages: proximity to the Unites States; attractiveness to tourists and a large and wealthy exile population. These three factors could converge to transform Cuba’s economy, but only if the future Cuban leadership creates the necessary conditions: an open, legally fair economy and an open, tolerant, and responsible political system. Unfortunately, life in Cuba is likely to remain difficult and improve slowly.
(This report was previously published by the Latin America Advisor, Inter-American Dialogue, on May 5, 2023)
*Jaime Suchlicki is Director of the Cuban Studies Institute, CSI, a non-profit research group in Coral Gables, FL. He is the author of Cuba: From Columbus to Castro & Beyond, now in its 5th edition; Mexico: From Montezuma to the Rise of the PAN, 2nd edition, and Breve Historia de Cuba.
