In an interview during the presidential campaign, V.P. Joe Biden was asked about his Cuba policy if elected President. He responded that he would follow the Obama policy. Did Mr. Biden mean that he would offer General Raúl Castro more unilateral concessions with little or nothing in return? The Obama policies failed to secure any change regarding respect for human rights on the island, the return of confiscated properties, the reduction of military presence in Venezuela, the return of terrorists hiding in the island or moderation in Cuba’s anti-U.S. policies.
The continuation of the disastrous Obama Cuba policies will only prolong the agony of the Cuban people and delay a return to a more humane regime in Cuba. How about a policy of more tourism and humanitarian aid in exchange for more freedom and respect for human rights? Or perhaps it would be best to reserve any initiatives for after General Raúl Castro (who is now 89) is no longer in the picture. At a time of transition in Cuba, U.S. policy and initiatives could be effective.
Historically, unilateral concessions toward totalitarian regimes have failed to achieve U.S. objectives. Adversaries pocket the concessions and ask for more.
Only a no-nonsense policy of quid pro quo will achieve, at least, partial objectives in Cuba. The reality of a hardline entrenched military Marxist regime in the island and in Venezuela represent real challenges to the new Biden administration. “Making nice” will not change that reality.
*Jaime Suchlicki is Founder and Director of the Cuban Studies Institute, CSI, a non-profit research group in Coral Gables, FL. He is the author of Cuba: From Columbus to Castro & Beyond, now in its 5th edition; Mexico: From Montezuma to the Rise of the PAN, 2nd edition, and of Breve Historia de Cuba.
Published in The Inter-American Dialogue’s Daily Latin America Advisor on November 19, 2020.
2 thoughts on “WILL BIDEN MAKE MAJOR CHANGES TO U.S. POLICY ON CUBA?”
Muy acertado analisis. En particular el desglose de la falta de logros de la politica de Obama. Importante esclarecerle esto a Biden.
“The continuation of the disastrous Obama Cuba policies will only prolong the agony of the Cuban people and delay a return to a more humane regime in Cuba. How about a policy of more tourism and humanitarian aid in exchange for more freedom and respect for human rights? Or perhaps it would be best to reserve any initiatives for after General Raúl Castro (who is now 89) is no longer in the picture. At a time of transition in Cuba, U.S. policy and initiatives could be effective.”
There will be a Cuban Communist Party Congress next April (coinciding with the 60th anniversary of the Bay of Pigs Invasion) at which Miguel Diaz-Canel will formally be declared head of the PCC (if Cuban physician Jose Ramon Machado Ventura dies, then someone who was born after the Bay of Pigs Invasion could be chosen as the PCC’s No.2). But Raul Castro, given his advanced age, could die before the Congress.
Although Joe Biden’s initial executive policy actions will be to revoke the Muslim immigration ban and other immigration policies enacted by Trump, but also building on Obamacare, he may announce the revocation of many of Trump’s Cuba trade, travel, and investment sanctions ahead of the 60th anniversary of the Bay of Pigs invasion, insofar that the Cuban government will reinforce its view of the 2020 election as Trump’s Bay of Pigs moment (Biden has no hate lost for Castro, but he has made no secret of his plan to repair US-Cuba relations after four lousy years under Trump).
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